January 2001
Human Numbers on the Increase
Wisdom M. Dlamini

The world population is increasing and has now reached more than 5.9 billion, according to recent United Nations (U.N.) estimates. The human population is growing exponentially, i.e. the rate of increase is continuously applied to an ever-expanding number, identical to a bank account where interest is compounded. Human populations are growing exponentially, or "exploding" because children, comparable to the interest earned on a bank account, have children themselves.

In Swaziland the population growth is about 3.2% per annum and it is one of the highest on the global scale. The land and/or the environment in which we live is being degraded at an alarming rate. Desertification problems continue to haunt the planet and developing countries suffer the most. Clearly, more people make greater demands on the earth's resources. However, human impact on the earth is not only determined by numbers of people, but also by how much energy and other resources each person uses or wastes. Sustainable living is possible only if human numbers and demand for resources are kept within the earth's carrying capacity. If we apply to our lives the rules we apply when managing other species, we should curb population growth well before human numbers reach our estimate of what the planet can support. This is particularly important because whilst we know that there is an ultimate limit to the planet's carrying capacity, we are uncertain exactly what it is. In Swaziland, already, there are signs of pressure on the environment as a result of population explosion. Some of these Increased land degradation, urbanisation, unproductive subsistence farming and a lot others.

Human population and resource consumption
Commercial energy (e.g. coal, oil, nuclear) consumption is a useful measure of environmental impact. Energy enables people to take resources from the environment, to change them into usable products, and consume them. During this process waste is produced, and often released into the environment as pollution. Although most `high energy consumption' countries have near-stable populations (i.e. the population growth is close to zero) their resource consumption continues to rise. The rural population in Swaziland is mostly dependent on wood as an energy source. Immense pressure on the forest resources is being applied by the increasing demand for this energy source. Forest resources are also on the decline as a result of demand for building purposes and other domestic purposes. This will eventually lead to land degradation on which the same people depend for their livelihoods.

Water scarcity is also a problem brought about by the increase in population. The drought that has been experienced in Swaziland has worsened the situation. Moreover, increased pollution has rendered some water sources unusable and thereby posing a threat to the well-being of the populace.

Population growth and poverty
Poverty remains an enormous problem worldwide. Within developing countries, about one third of the population lives on less than US$1 a day (the World Bank defines poverty as an income of less than US$1 per day, using purchasing power parity – in other words exchange rates adjusted to the local currency. Poverty can also be defined more broadly than by income alone. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) uses the Human Poverty Index which is an aggregate index that measures other forms of deprivation, including low life expectancy, illiteracy, and measures of access to health services., safe water, and adequate nutrition. Human poverty is mostly widespread in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Population growth rates are highest where poverty is most severe - why is this so?

Where there is poverty people have less security and fewer choices. It seems that with economic growth and the range of options it brings, people, particularly women, choose not to have large families. Economic growth and a widespread distribution of the benefits it can bring, creates jobs and improves education and health facilities. With improved education facilities, more women will have opportunities to attend school. More jobs means that women, drawn into the growing job market, become wage earners in their own right. New found status and empowerment resulting from earnings and education, coupled with access to family planning services, allow women greater control in deciding how many children they will bear. A desire to remain employed, and fewer child deaths (as a result of better health services) no doubt contribute to a decision to limit the number of children born.
In some societies, where financial structures such as pension and retirement annuity schemes are not readily available, having children is a rational choice as they provide security for their parents' old age. Giving people the means (through the vote, improved social and legal status, education, access to family planning and financial independence) to choose the size of their families will not only help keep the population in balance with resources; it is also a way of assuring, especially for women, the basic right of self-determination. Concern over population growth is a call of concern for human progress and human equality.
Feeding an ever-larger population predicted for the future will require a food-supply or agricultural system that is will stay apace of population growth. The process of raising food has not always been kind to the environment. Throughout history, whenever more food has been needed, people have simply cleared more land to plant more crops. However, most high-quality agricultural land is already in production and the environmental costs of converting remaining forests, grassland, and wetland habitats to cropland are well recognised. Even if such land were converted to agricultural uses, much of the remaining soil is less productive and more fragile; thus, its contribution to future production would likely to be limited. With such problems as global warming (which has resulted in increase in drought conditions), soil degradation and pollution, there is an urgent need to look seriously at the issue of population growth. The convergence of population growth, rising demand for fuel-wood, and the conversion of forests to agriculture are expected to put increasing pressure on the country's forests in the next few decades. The result will, of course, be a considerable loss of forests area and quality. This will lead to destruction of the environment and way of life of people dependent on these resources for survival. This also results in incalculable losses in biological diversity and ecological services, including nutrient recycling, watershed management, and climate regulation.

Urbanisation is another problem associated with increasing human numbers. This strains the capacity of local governments to provide even the basic services to urban residents. This shows that if this is uncontrolled, in the near future some people will be living in impoverished slums and squatter settlements, with little or no access to adequate water, sanitation, or refuse collection. In such situations, both environmental quality and human health are at risk.

* Some people maintain that economic growth will reduce population growth in many countries. It is a realistic solution in view of the environmental damage that traditionally accompanies much of the industrial and commercial activity associated with economic growth.

* For sustainable living, all societies need a balance between resources and population. Thus, it is not only population numbers that threaten the Swaziland environment, but the lack of access to resources on the one hand and the over-consumption of resources on the other.

* In Swaziland, poverty is a result of having too many children and also large families are a symptom of poverty.

One hopes that the proposed population policy will address these issues because if they are not addresses with urgency and diligence, we are destined for human catastrophe and a unending environmental problems.

Even as these trends indicate the environmental challenges ahead, it is important to remember that they can e modified with human resolve. Demographic experts believe that a shift from high to low birth rates , and from low to high life expectancy can be brought about by "social modernisation". This complex of changes involves improved health care and access to family planning; higher educational attainment, especially among women; economic growth and rising per capita income levels; and growing employment opportunities. Stabilization of the world’s population will therefore depend on continuing or accelerating socio-economic development. It is very important to note that the environment and its resources play a very important role in socio-economic development. For example, the economies of the world would soon collapse without fertile soils, fresh water and breathable air, and an amenable climate. This can be achieved if our country would avoid unsustainable economic choices that degrade both the natural resources and the vital services that healthy natural systems generate.

References:
World Resources Institute, World Resources 1998-99- A Guide to the Global Environment (1998), UNDP, UNEP, WRI and the World Bank, Oxford University Press.

Swaziland Environment Authority. Swaziland Environment Action Plan (1997) Vol.1

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